lupusintabula - Day 4 |
| Link:27166 Sat Jan 23 00:16:44 2010 |
| Time:2005-10-20 19:34:42 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#465438 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#3 #12 #24 #27 #29 #38 #50 #51 #54 #55 Children:#2 |
#1 | |
| The important question is... did | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 19:48:46 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#467486 | Parent:#1 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#2 | |
| The mayor pushes the curtain back from the vacation manor and peers out carefully. "Sir, get away from that window, you're suppose to be dead." "Oh quite right, "Yes sir, if you'll get in your coffin, I'll be happy to load you into the carriage and take you home." "That doppelganger worked perfectly didn't it?" "Yes, sir. Perhaps you should hurry up before more people gather outside?" "Oh yes, besides who knows what trouble the "Yes, lord knows." | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 19:50:02 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#467998 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #12 #24 #27 #29 #38 #50 #51 #54 #55 Children:#4 #13 #19 |
#3 | |
| Howdy all! Let’s try something different today: I am the NOTARY. Unfortunately, I do not have much useful info to pass on to you. However, I will give you what I have: " ________________________________________________ I wasn't a wolf. I really did just guess. I said fuckers before - but think people might not realize that it's part of my sense of humor. Fuckers. :p ________________________________________________ Villager, suspicious of the smart ones, ________________________________________________ I am the seer. if I was lynched Nah nah nah ________________________________________________ While I realize that this doesn’t give anything for everyone else to work with, with this post I can prove (post-humorously, of course) beyond a doubt my role... | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:03:09 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#469278 | Parent:#3 Siblings:#13 #19 Children:#5 |
#4 | |
| No wills from | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:04:19 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#469790 | Parent:#4 Siblings:(none) Children:#6 |
#5 | |
"Here may be found the last words of Joseph of Millers Hollow. He who is valiant and pure of spirit may find the wolf weres in the House of Aaauuuggghhh…" There was none for Flip. | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:11:38 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#470558 | Parent:#5 Siblings:(none) Children:#7 #8 |
#6 | |
| Sorry, my doppelganger was interrupted while writing :) would you like another one? I've got about 20 of them lying around, ask the innkeeper :) | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:13:04 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#471070 | Parent:#6 Siblings:#8 Children:#10 |
#7 | |
| Quiet, dead man! :P | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:14:07 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#471326 | Parent:#6 Siblings:#7 Children:#9 |
#8 | |
| Lol! *digs in the Notary box for lost "wisdom"...* | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:19:46 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#472094 | Parent:#8 Siblings:(none) Children:#11 |
#9 | |
The innkeeper promptly runs over and grabs the remainder of | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:21:30 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#472350 | Parent:#7 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#10 | |
| As the Mayor's coach pulls away from his vacation home, the curtains in the back part slightly revealing an open casket, and an out stretched hand flipping | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:23:35 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#472606 | Parent:#9 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#11 | |
| Darn it! That could of gotten me free drinks for at least a year! | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:25:42 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#472862 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #24 #27 #29 #38 #50 #51 #54 #55 Children:#14 #17 #20 #21 |
#12 | |
| There's a 21% chance that all 6 dead people were villagers. That means a 79% chance that we've gotten at least one wolf by now. Perhaps the priest can tell us? I'm not certain I believe the deceased If the PRIEST or SEER are still alive, some of these questions could be answered. In the mean time I'm going to vote | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:26:02 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#473118 | Parent:#3 Siblings:#4 #19 Children:#15 |
#13 | |
| Is it just me, or is | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:29:54 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#474142 | Parent:#12 Siblings:#17 #20 #21 Children:#25 |
#14 | |
| Assuming that With that in mind, obviously at least one of them is lying, since we can't have two seers. If | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:30:22 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#474398 | Parent:#13 Siblings:(none) Children:#16 #18 |
#15 | |
| Does the seer start the game with one free viewing? | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:30:54 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#474654 | Parent:#15 Siblings:#18 Children:(none) |
#16 | |
| That's how we usually do it. | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:30:55 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#474910 | Parent:#12 Siblings:#14 #20 #21 Children:#22 |
#17 | |
| I'm out of ideas. My "List" is clear. VOTE GPEEFAULT | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:31:36 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#475166 | Parent:#15 Siblings:#16 Children:(none) |
#18 | |
| Yes, he gets a Night Zero viewing. | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:38:10 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#475934 | Parent:#3 Siblings:#4 #13 Children:#44 |
#19 | |
| I appreciate I'm sorry to say I was wrong about | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:41:21 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#476702 | Parent:#12 Siblings:#14 #17 #21 Children:#23 #31 #33 |
#20 | |
| Better than vote gpeefault | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:42:39 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#476958 | Parent:#12 Siblings:#14 #17 #20 Children:(none) |
#21 | |
| it doesn't seem to matter which one was the seer, with the exception of whether or not we believe i'll bandwagon and vote | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:42:54 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#477214 | Parent:#17 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#22 | |
| that's " | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:43:08 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#477470 | Parent:#20 Siblings:#31 #33 Children:(none) |
#23 | |
| " | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:47:17 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#478238 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #12 #27 #29 #38 #50 #51 #54 #55 Children:#26 |
#24 | |
I'm going to assume those who were eaten were NOT wolves... | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:51:34 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#479006 | Parent:#14 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#25 | |
| I think you're right. In both cases So we've got either one or two wolves down. | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:53:03 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#479262 | Parent:#24 Siblings:(none) Children:#28 |
#26 | |
| I think in other comments we've pretty much concluded that | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:54:39 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#479518 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #12 #24 #29 #38 #50 #51 #54 #55 Children:#34 |
#27 | |
| Right now, I think bandwagoning on | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:54:40 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#479774 | Parent:#26 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#28 | |
| Well, I'll have to turn the reins over to you until later tonight. I have a business trip I gotta rush off to. :) | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 20:55:31 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#480030 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #12 #24 #27 #38 #50 #51 #54 #55 Children:#30 |
#29 | |
| I would just like to say that blind games suck. It's so hard not knowing if we have any wolves yet. My thought on the wills is this: But by that reasoning, perhaps vote | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 21:03:10 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#481822 | Parent:#29 Siblings:(none) Children:#32 |
#30 | |
| But by that reasoning, perhaps I'm sorry, but how does that lead into a vote for me? | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 21:16:28 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#482334 | Parent:#20 Siblings:#23 #33 Children:(none) |
#31 | |
| Dunno about "unpleasant". Certainly doesn't leave much room for you to go on. | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 21:39:43 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#482590 | Parent:#30 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#32 | |
| See, I'm not sure he's a wolf, as I'm not sure my logic actually works. It's between you, | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 21:45:54 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#483102 | Parent:#20 Siblings:#23 #31 Children:(none) |
#33 | |
| vote | |||
| Time:2005-10-20 22:36:04 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#483358 | Parent:#27 Siblings:(none) Children:#35 |
#34 | |
| Strongly disagree. Let's assume | |||
| Time:2005-10-21 00:28:40 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#486942 | Parent:#34 Siblings:(none) Children:#36 |
#35 | |
| So how do you explain the double seer claim? If | |||
| Time:2005-10-21 00:37:23 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#487198 | Parent:#35 Siblings:(none) Children:#37 |
#36 | |
| Maybe we're misinterpreting | |||
| Time:2005-10-21 00:48:44 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#487710 | Parent:#36 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#37 | |
| Or maybe he simply didn't think to do it until after he'd already been lynched. | |||
| Time:2005-10-21 02:07:26 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#488478 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #12 #24 #27 #29 #50 #51 #54 #55 Children:#39 |
#38 | |
| Assume: 1. I am not a wolf (solipsism) 2. All non-lynching deaths are non-wolves (assumes witch hasn't poisoned, and wolves never ate each other) 3. People I've tentatively cleared based on behavior: 4. Exactly one of the claimed seers is a lying wolf: ( 5. At least one wolf has joined each bandwagon relatively early, but not where the target was a wolf: (( (( (( vote Did I miss anything? | |||
| Time:2005-10-21 02:12:12 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#488734 | Parent:#38 Siblings:(none) Children:#40 #42 |
#39 | |
| Yes, I did. Bug in my code for assumption 5: it should be: (( (( (( Probabilities are: | |||
| Time:2005-10-21 03:50:35 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#489246 | Parent:#39 Siblings:#42 Children:#41 |
#40 | |
| I can't agree with your solipsism. =) I also can't be sure | |||
| Time:2005-10-21 04:17:47 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#489502 | Parent:#40 Siblings:(none) Children:#43 |
#41 | |
| That mean you're gonna change your vote? | |||
| Time:2005-10-21 04:33:41 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#490014 | Parent:#39 Siblings:#40 Children:#47 |
#42 | |
| http://cuddlepuddle.org/~adam/werecalc/index2.cgi again; the help has been expanded to include some things which might have made your claims easier to express. | |||
| Time:2005-10-21 04:38:30 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#490270 | Parent:#41 Siblings:(none) Children:#45 |
#43 | |
| To change my vote means I'd have to buy into all his assumptions. The "early bandwagon" theory is tough for me to swallow. I'm not convinced that that is the strategy that the wolves would follow very consistantly. | |||
| Time:2005-10-21 04:39:25 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#490526 | Parent:#19 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#44 | |
| I pretty much believe he was the witch at this point. | |||
| Time:2005-10-21 04:53:21 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#490782 | Parent:#43 Siblings:(none) Children:#46 |
#45 | |
| It's a relatively weak claim. For it to hold, only one of the three wolves would have to join in an early bandwagon (I used the first ~4 votes, and didn't put people I'd already cleared in the equation (to save typing)). Given how quick and how intense bandwagons have been, I find it hard to believe they haven't been 'helped along' to a certain extent. | |||
| Time:2005-10-21 04:53:55 GMT Author: Subject:Clarification Link:27166#491038 | Parent:#45 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#46 | |
| By "weak" I mean "it doesn't claim much", not "it doesn't hold up very well". | |||
| Time:2005-10-21 04:55:39 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#491294 | Parent:#42 Siblings:(none) Children:#48 #49 |
#47 | |
| Thanks. That'll help a lot in the future. While I was writing up my claims, I kept thinking how much an exclusive-or would have helped. Quantitative operators would have given me XOR and then some. | |||
| Time:2005-10-21 05:12:13 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#491550 | Parent:#47 Siblings:#49 Children:(none) |
#48 | |
| perl is used to eval the final stage of the expression, after things like "foo=WOLF" have been resolved, so there's a lot more power there than you might have guessed. | |||
| Time:2005-10-21 05:12:49 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#491806 | Parent:#47 Siblings:#48 Children:(none) |
#49 | |
| The "^" should work as an xor. Haven't tried it yet though. | |||
| Time:2005-10-21 14:45:11 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#492830 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #12 #24 #27 #29 #38 #51 #54 #55 Children:(none) |
#50 | |
| In training all day @ work. This will be last post today. Hopefully I'll still be alive on Monday. :) vote | |||
| Time:2005-10-21 16:18:48 GMT Author: Subject:What to do... Link:27166#493086 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #12 #24 #27 #29 #38 #50 #54 #55 Children:#52 |
#51 | |
| I could be called into a meeting unexpectedly in the next few minutes. vote | |||
| Time:2005-10-21 16:22:29 GMT Author: Subject:Re: What to do... Link:27166#493342 | Parent:#51 Siblings:(none) Children:#53 |
#52 | |
| Secret Tailor's meeting, eh? Tell me what you know of inseams! | |||
| Time:2005-10-21 16:25:38 GMT Author: Subject:Re: What to do... Link:27166#493598 | Parent:#52 Siblings:(none) Children:(none) |
#53 | |
| Are you in need of some...adjustments to your inseam?? Left or right?!? | |||
| Time:2005-10-21 16:48:27 GMT Author: Subject:Statistics and reasonable assumptions Link:27166#495390 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #12 #24 #27 #29 #38 #50 #51 #55 Children:(none) |
#54 | |
| So some reasonable assumptions have come up... werewolves don't eat werewolves in the night werewolves don't vote for werewolves on day one werewolves generally don't vote for werewolves on other days, but may if they see they can't turn a dogpile around additionally... either Using the werecalc, and current vote numbers, this breaks down to... # werewolves don't attack werewolves # # # werewolves don't vote for werewolves on day 1 # werewolves don't vote for werewolves on day 2 EXCEPT DOGPILES # werewolves don't vote for werewolves on day 3 EXCEPT DOGPILES # ditto day four which means... I'll leave my vote as it stands, since | |||
| Time:2005-10-21 18:08:21 GMT Author: Subject:(none) Link:27166#496670 | Parent:(none) Siblings:#1 #3 #12 #24 #27 #29 #38 #50 #51 #54 Children:(none) |
#55 | |
| Post closed. | |||
| vote | 2005-10-20 20:25:42 GMT | #12 | |||
| vote | 2005-10-20 20:30:55 GMT | #17 | gpeefault | ||
| vote | 2005-10-20 20:41:21 GMT | #20 | gpeefault | ||
| vote | 2005-10-20 20:42:39 GMT | #21 | |||
| vote | 2005-10-20 20:54:39 GMT | #27 | |||
| vote | 2005-10-20 20:55:31 GMT | #29 | |||
| vote | 2005-10-20 21:45:54 GMT | #33 | |||
| vote | 2005-10-21 02:07:26 GMT | #38 | |||
| vote | 2005-10-21 14:45:11 GMT | #50 | |||
| vote | 2005-10-21 16:18:48 GMT | #51 |
| 4 against | : | ||
| 2 against | : | ||
| 2 against | : | ||
| 1 against | : | ||
| Posted but no vote | : | ||
| posts by | : | (13) | #12 #25 #26 #31 #35 #36 #40 #42 #43 #44 #48 #49 #54 | |
| posts by | : | (10) | #1 #4 #7 #13 #14 #16 #27 #30 #37 #41 | |
| posts by | : | (8) | #3 #5 #8 #11 #15 #24 #28 #50 | |
| posts by | : | (5) | #38 #39 #45 #46 #47 | |
| posts by | : | (4) | #2 #6 #9 #10 | |
| posts by | : | (4) | #21 #22 #23 #34 | |
| posts by | : | (3) | #18 #52 #55 | |
| posts by | : | (3) | #19 #20 #33 | |
| posts by | : | (2) | #51 #53 | |
| posts by | : | (2) | #29 #32 | |
| posts by | : | (1) | #17 |